Publications in Energy Markets, Policy, and Regulation

Highlights

1. Nyangon, J. and Byrne, J. (2021) (Eds). Sustainable Energy Investment: Technical, Market and Policy Innovations to Address Risk. IntechOpen, London. ISBN: 978-1-83880-198-4. Pp. 260. DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.86093.

2. Nyangon, J. (2021). Smart Energy Frameworks for Smart Cities: The Need for Polycentrism. In J. C. Augusto (Ed.), In Handbook of Smart Cities. London, UK: Springer.

3. Nyangon, J. (2021). Tackling the Risk of Stranded Electricity Assets with Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence. In Nyangon, J. and Byrne, J. (Eds), Sustainable Energy Investment: Technical, Market and Policy Innovations to Address Risk. IntechOpen, London. DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.93488.

4. Nyangon, J. and Byrne, J. (2021). Introductory Chapter: Sustainable Energy Investment and the Transition to Renewable Energy-Powered Futures. In Nyangon, J. and Byrne, J. (Eds), Sustainable Energy Investment: Technical, Market and Policy Innovations to Address Risk. IntechOpen, London. DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.94320.

5. Nyangon, J. and Byrne, J. (2018). Diversifying Electricity Customer Choice: REVing Up the New York Energy Vision for Polycentric Innovation. In Pavel V. Tsvetkov (Ed.), Energy Systems and Environment, IntechOpen, London, UK.

6. Taminiau, J., Nyangon, J., Lewis, A.S., and Byrne, J. (2017). Sustainable Business Model Innovation: Using Polycentric and Creative Climate Change Governance. In Ziska Fields (Ed.), Collective Creativity for Responsible and Sustainable Business Practice (pp. 140-159). Hershey, PA: IGI Global. DOI:10.4018/978-1-5225-1823-5.

7. Nyangon, J., Alabbas, N.H., and Agbemabiese, L. (2017). Entangled Systems at the Energy-Water-Food Nexus: Challenges and Opportunities. In Rao, P. and Patil, Y. (Eds.), Reconsidering the Impact of Climate Change on Global Water Supply, Use, and Management (pp. 144-165). Hershey, PA: IGI Global. DOI:10.4018/978-1-5225-1046-8.

8. Nyangon, J. “Book Review: Veld-Merkoulova, Y. and Viteva, S. (Eds.) (2017). Carbon Finance: How Carbon and Stock Markets Are Affected by Energy Prices and Emissions Regulations.” Energy Journal. Vol. 38(4).

9. Nyangon, J. “Book Review: Chesney, M., Gheyssens, J., Pana, A.C., Taschini, L., (2016). Environmental Finance and Investments.” Financial Analysts Journal. Vol. 72(4) 2016.

10. Nyangon, J. “Book Review: Hefley, W.E. and Wang, Y. (Eds.) (2015). Economics of Unconventional Shale Gas Development: Case Studies and Impacts.” Energy Journal. Vol. 37(4) October 2015. ISSN 0195-6574.

11. Nyangon, J. Connected Dreams: How Ideas Move and Connect in Unexpected Ways, Infinity Publishing, Conshohocken, PA., ISBN 978-0-74146-323-4, 2011, 295 pages.

Highlights

Article Highlights

Nyangon, J. (2024). Advancements in Hydrogen Energy Systems: A Review of Levelized Costs, Financial Incentives and Technological Innovations. Innovation and Green Development.

Abstract: Hydrogen energy systems (HES) are increasingly recognized as pivotal in cutting global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, especially in transportation, power generation, and industrial sectors. This paper offers a comprehensive review of HES, emphasizing their diverse applications and economic viability. By 2030, hydrogen energy is expected to revolutionize various sectors, significantly impacting CO2 abatement and energy demand. In electricity and power generation, hydrogen could reduce CO2 emissions by 50–100 million tons annually, requiring 10–20 million tons of hydrogen and an investment of $50–100 billion, underscoring its role in grid stabilization. Additionally, in the heating sector, hydrogen could facilitate a CO2 abatement of 30–50 million tons. We examine the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) production, influenced by factors like production methods, efficiency, and infrastructure. While steam methane reforming is cost-effective, it poses a larger environmental impact compared to electrolysis. The global life-cycle cost of hydrogen production decreases as production scales up, with current costs ranging from $1–3 per kg for fossil-based sources to $3.4–7.5 per kg for electrolysis using low-emission electricity. These costs are projected to decrease, especially for electrolytic hydrogen in regions with abundant solar energy. However, despite the technical feasibility of decarbonization, high production costs still pose challenges. A systematic and effective transition to a hydrogen economy requires comprehensive policy and financial support mechanisms, including incentives, subsidies, tax measures, and funding for research and development of pilot projects. Additionally, the paper discusses hydrogen's role in advanced storage technologies such as hydrides and Japan's ENE-FARM solution for residential energy, emphasizing the need for strategic investments across the hydrogen value chain to enhance HES competitiveness, reduce LCOH, and advance the learning rates of hydrogen production technologies.

Keywords: Hydrogen energy systems, Hydrogen production, Electrolyzer, Power system, Hydrogen applications, Fuel cell technology, Levelized cost of hydrogen

Nyangon, J. (2024). Climate-Proofing Critical Energy Infrastructure: Smart Grids, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning for Power System Resilience Against Extreme Weather Events. ASCE: Journal of Infrastructure Systems.

Abstract: Electrical power systems face heightened risks from climate change, on top of existing challenges like aging infrastructure, regulatory shifts, and cybersecurity threats. This paper explores how advanced technologies, including smart grids, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning, (ML) can enhance the resilience of power systems against climate-driven extreme weather events. Drawing insights from resilience theory, the paper presents a state-of-the-art review of grid resilience literature from the point of view of grid resilience literature, emphasizing the escalating vulnerabilities of energy systems to severe weather. Although utilities currently utilize technologies like automated meter reading and advanced metering infrastructure to collect vital grid performance data, the lack of strategic collaboration often impedes effective data governance and sharing, thus undermining efficient responses to climate threats. The paper underscores the significance of distributed energy resources, long-duration energy storage, microgrids, and demand-side management. It further illustrates how AI and ML can optimize smart grids to support these strategies. Proactive integration of smart grids with advanced technologies could significantly reduce climate-related costs compared to non-adaptive methods. Such proactive grid resilience strategies not only climate-proof energy infrastructure against climatic changes but also herald a modern industrial transformation.

Keywords: Climate change; Power system resilience; Smart grids; Artificial intelligence; Machine learning; Energy infrastructure; Extreme weather events

Nyangon, J. and Akintunde, R. (2024). Principal component analysis of day-ahead electricity price forecasting in CAISO and its implications for highly integrated renewable energy markets. WIREs Energy & Environment.

Abstract: Electricity price forecasting is crucial for grid management, renewable energy integration, power system planning, and price volatility management. However, poor accuracy due to complex generation mix data and heteroskedasticity poses a challenge for utilities and grid operators. This paper evaluates advanced analytics methods that utilize principal component analysis (PCA) to improve forecasting accuracy amidst heteroskedastic noise. Drawing on the experience of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), a leading producer of renewable electricity, the study analyzes hourly electricity prices and demand data from 2016 to 2021 to assess the impact of day-ahead forecasting on California's evolving generation mix. To enhance data quality, traditional outlier analysis using the interquartile range (IQR) method is first applied, followed by a novel supervised PCA technique called robust PCA (RPCA) for more effective outlier detection and elimination. The combined approach significantly improves data symmetry and reduces skewness. Multiple linear regression models are then constructed to forecast electricity prices using both raw and transformed features obtained through PCA. Results demonstrate that the model utilizing transformed features, after outlier removal using the traditional method and SAS Sparse Matrix method, achieves the highest forecasting performance. Notably, the SAS Sparse Matrix outlier removal method, implemented via proc RPCA, greatly contributes to improved model accuracy. This study highlights that PCA methods enhance electricity price forecasting accuracy, facilitating the integration of renewables like solar and wind, thereby aiding grid management and promoting renewable growth in day-ahead markets.

Keywords: California Independent System Operator (CAISO); Electricity price forecasting; Heteroskedasticity; Power system planning; Principal component analysis (PCA); Renewable energy integration; Variable renewable sources

Nyangon, J. and Byrne, J. (2023). Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability. WIREs Energy & Environment. Vol. 12, Issue 1.

Abstract: Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas-fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas-fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system-generalized method of moments (system-GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions-level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost-related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non-wire alternative policy technique.

Keywords: Solar Photovoltaic, Natural gas, Impact estimation, Panel regression, System-GMM

Byrne, J., Taminiau, J., and Nyangon, J. (2022). American Policy Conflict in the Hothouse: Exploring the Politics of Climate Inaction and Polycentric Rebellion. Energy Research & Social Science (ERSS). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102551.

Abstract: In 2021, the United States submitted a national climate plan, signaling the Biden Administration’s intention to return the country to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process. The plan puts the country on course to zero out carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from its energy sector by mid-century or sooner. In response, the national opposition party quickly declared its intent to prevent the announced plan from being implemented, causing another cycle of American climate policy inaction: cancel politics are practiced by the Republican Party after the Democratic Party attempts to fashion a national compromise. The pattern has been the same for decades leading to the same result: U.S. failure to sustain a national policy. A third party in the conflict – subnational actors (state and local governments in partnership with civil society) – continues to design, enact and enforce policies and has become the owner of actual climate policy achievement in the U.S. This paper argues that the conflict has entered another stage of national gridlock in which hopeful policy makers desperately plead for cooperation, while policy deniers pursue policy destruction and preemption. In response to this ‘hothouse’ conflict in which partisan national politics ignores overwhelming evidence of human impact in the global greenhouse, an American “polycentric” strategy has emerged and is building an institutional fabric based on principles of social justice and moral responsibility, and tasking policies and economics to meet these aims. We offer a theory of American climate policy conflict, supported by empirical findings, that depicts a polycentric movement installing new governance paradigms and delivering a politics and economics of transformation in U.S. energy-climate-society relations.

Keywords: climate change; policy conflict; polycentricism; U.S. climate policy; policy diffusion; polycentricity.

Nyangon, J. and Byrne, J. (2021). Spatial Energy Efficiency Patterns in New York and Implications for Energy Demand and the Rebound Effect. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 16:2, 135-161. DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2020.1868619.

Abstract: This study uses a spatial Durbin error model (SDEM) approach to analyze adoption trends for residential energy-efficiency measures (EEMs) in New York state. Model results are based on socioeconomic, building, and household demographic characteristics during the 2012–2016 period. Our study’s results confirm that a positive correlation exists between EEM uptake and multifamily buildings, gas-heated homes, education effects, and spatial spillover effects among neighboring ZIP codes. The results show that building attributes hold a relatively high explanatory power over EEM adoption compared with socioeconomic characteristics. Our results show that energy-efficiency policies can create positive and significant neighborly effects in promoting EEM adoption. The developed SDEM methodological framework provides useful insights in identifying energy-efficiency opportunities that exist in rural, suburban, and urban communities, highlighting the need to review policy incentives periodically to address underlying changes in the built environment and spatial disparities in energy-efficiency investments.

Keywords: Energy Efficiency; Spatial Spillover Effects; Spatial Durbin Modeling; Neighborly Emulation; Rebound Effects; New York; Energy-efficiency Measures

Nyangon, J., Byrne, J., and Taminiau, J. (2017). An assessment of price convergence between natural gas and solar photovoltaic in the U.S. electricity market. WIREs Energy & Environment. Vol. 6, Issue 3. https://doi.org/10.1002/wene.238.

Abstract: The U.S. shale boom has exerted downward pressure on natural gas prices nationally, widened oil-to-gas price spreads, and accelerated coal-to-gas fuel substitution. One concern is the impact of the rising production of shale gas on further development of a domestic solar photovoltaic (PV) market. Specifically, will lower natural gas prices slow or even reverse the current rapid growth in the solar market? Using the Phillips–Sul convergence test, this paper investigates whether the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of solar PV and natural gas electricity generation in the United States have converged. Using weekly Henry Hub-linked natural gas spot prices and utility PV system prices from 2010 to 2015, empirical tests for convergence are applied to examine the extent of spot market integration and the speed with which market forces move the two energy prices toward equilibrium. The paper also assesses the link between the MAC Solar Energy Index (SUNIDX) and the S&P GSCI natural gas index spot prices for evidence of market integration during 2007–2015. We conclude that PV and natural gas prices are not converging, and the two markets are not integrated nationally, but some level of integration could exist at regional and state levels that will need to be tested in future research. We also conclude that complementary use of the technologies is likely; while price convergence is not likely to occur soon, distinctive complementary benefits of each resource compared to each other (e.g., fast-start capabilities for gas and low price volatility for PV) will offer opportunities that expand market demand for both.

Keywords: Photovoltaic, Solar Market, Natural Gas, Market Integration, LCOE, Shale Gas, Price Convergence

Nyangon, J. (2015). The U.S. Shale Gas Revolution and its Implications for International Energy Policy. Green Monitor: Technology & Policy Review, Korea University. Vol.3. No. 2. ISSN 2287-9404.

Abstract: The shale gas revolution has fundamentally transformed energy markets domestically and abroad. Rising production has led to falling gas and oil prices in the U.S., while Europe, in contrast, is paying four to five times more for its natural gas and becoming one of the biggest importers of U.S. coal. As recently as five or six years ago this turnabout seemed improbable, with many analysts calling for rapid growth in renewable energy investment as the best means by which to wean the nation from its dependence on imported oil. Even then, such investment seemed far-fetched as the liquidity crisis worsened during the 2008-2012 global recession, forcing the federal government to institute stringent fiscal and monetary stimulus to stabilize the financial market and institutions. Taken together, the shale gas revolution represents the maturation of industry-friendly policies started under President Bush and continued during the Obama Administration. These policies supported the introduction of advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing, tight-oil extraction, horizontal drilling, innovative industrial software and other digital solutions, which have allowed production companies to economically extract oil and gas from previously inaccessible or financially infeasible shale rock formations with breathtaking speed. Most tantalizingly, this is a story of the triumph of a combination of economics of energy (operating by its own rules of supply and demand), the power of government-funded research and development (R&D), and getting the relationship right between the government and private sectors.

Nyangon, J. (2014). International Environmental Governance: Lessons from UNEA and Perspectives on the Post-2015 Era. Journal of Sustainable Development Law and Policy. Vol. 4 Vol. 1. [PDF]

Abstract: The inaugural meeting of the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) held in June 2014 in Nairobi, was a culmination of more than four decades of environmental governance since the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) was established in 1972 in Stockholm. The meeting addressed weighty and contentious issues including strengthening of UNEP’s role in promoting environmental governance and enhancing science- policy interface. Yet despite the historical significance of the meeting following universalization of the governing body of UNEP and current debates on the post-2015 development agenda, questions persist about the role of UNEP, its establishment, performance, and fragmentation of programmes and secretariats of the multilateral environmental agreements associated with it. This paper reviews the outcome of the inaugural UNEA session, while developing a political economy account of institutional arrangements of international environmental governance to clarify the potential for, and barriers to effective environmental reform. Multilaterally, international environmental governance continues to exhibit elements of complexity, fragmentation, lack of coordination as well as redundancy. In more critical terms, lack of policy integration between environmental regimes is a concern of environmental governance that the new UNEA should address as a matter of priority. Furthermore, incoherent policy objectives in international environmental law often characterised as a governance patchwork have been criticized for their economic orthodoxies that only serve to marginalize and delegitimize alternative modes of environmental governance. In this regard, a core part of UNEA’s institutional legitimacy depends on its success in coevolving to keep up with environmental challenges as they themselves change, as well as enhancing consensus-based stakeholder engagement, perspectives, and participation on environmental governance. This will be its true litmus test on how it responds coherently and effectively to international environmental governance in a post-2015 development world.

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